DE_LU Day-Ahead Prices Jun 10: Evening Peak up to 291 EUR/MWh

New name, same concept: as Telescope Energy, we continue to share our frontier model's forecast for day-ahead electricity prices for the DE/LU bidding zone – accompanied by an honest review of how well yesterday's forecast performed.

Day-Ahead Price Forecast

📈 Daily pattern: On this Wednesday, prices are forecast to open at €137/MWh and hold an overnight floor of €114–130/MWh through to 05:00, rise to a morning peak of €141.66/MWh at 07:00, then ease to a midday low of €64.36/MWh at 12:45 before climbing steeply to a high peak of €290.88/MWh at 20:30 and finally easing to €136/MWh by midnight.

📊 Range and spread: The forecast spans an intraday spread of approximately €227/MWh, from the midday trough of €64.36/MWh at 12:45 to the evening peak of €290.88/MWh at 20:30.

⚡Evening peak, No negatives: The forecast records overall elevated price levels and no negative prices across any of the 96 quarter-hours, with a pronounced evening block holding above €225/MWh for five consecutive quarter-hours between 19:45 and 21:15.

Yesterday's Review

📊 Metrics: The forecast delivered excellent accuracy with a low MAE of €6.62/MWh and a strong R² of 0.960, explaining 96% of the day's price variance.

📈 Maximum: The forecast nailed the evening peak timing exactly, with both the actual and forecast daily maximum falling at 20:45. The magnitude was nearly perfect too, with a forecast of €166.65/MWh against an actual €162.52/MWh.

📉 Minimum: The actual minimum of €0.09/MWh occurred at 14:30, while the forecast placed its own low point 90 minutes earlier at 13:00. Prices stayed just barely positive and while the model kept its floor too high, it correctly avoided forecasting any negative values.