Germany Day-Ahead Prices Jun 9: Evening Peak up to 167 EUR/MWh

We forecast day-ahead electricity prices for the DE/LU bidding zone with our frontier model Quantum 1.0. Below you will find today's forecast and an honest review of how well yesterday's forecast performed.

Day-Ahead Forecast

📈 Daily pattern: For tomorrow, Tuesday, prices are forecast to open at €136/MWh and hold an overnight floor of €113-124/MWh through to 05:00, rise to a morning peak of €137.84/MWh at 08:00, then fall through the late morning to a midday low of €6.44/MWh at 13:00 before climbing steadily through the afternoon to an evening peak of €166.65/MWh at 20:45 and easing to €121/MWh by midnight.

📊 Range and spread: The forecast spans an intraday spread of approximately €160/MWh, from the midday trough of €6.44/MWh at 13:00 to the evening peak of €166.65/MWh at 20:45.

🔆 Midday low without negatives: Despite a pronounced solar-driven midday dip, the forecast predicts no negative prices, with prices in the 13:00-15:00 window holding in a narrow €6–26/MWh band before the afternoon recovery.

Review of Yesterday's Forecast

📊 Metrics: The forecast performed well with a low MAE of €9.53/MWh and an R² of 0.862. The near-zero bias of +€1.33/MWh shows the model was well-centered overall, with no systematic tendency to run high or low across the day.

📈 Maximum: The actual daily peak of €227.30/MWh occurred at 19:45, while the forecast placed its own peak 45 minutes later. At the true peak quarter-hour the forecast under-forecasted by €11.76/MWh, though the model then overshot into a spike around 20:30 that the market did not deliver.

📉 Minimum: The forecast nailed the actual minimum quarter-hour at exactly 11:45, a perfect timing match. The model correctly predicted that there were no negative prices on the day.